Conservation in the face of ‘global weirding’

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Devastating droughts affecting elephants, giraffes and people in Kenya. Communities living alongside rare gorillas in Cameroon waiting longer and longer for rain. These are erratic times when it comes to weather patterns.  

Dr Nikki Tagg

Extreme conditions, driven by the climate crisis, are posing a significant threat to wildlife and human populations alike. With deadly swings between extreme wet and dry weather, ‘climate whiplash’ is having an impact around the world. To protect rare and threatened species in the wild, Born Free is invested in a number of landscapes in countries affected by climate weirding and we know there are challenges ahead.

A recent report has revealed how rising average global temperatures, driven by burning of fossil fuels, are also leading to deadly swings between extreme wet and dry weather.

Born Free’s Head of Conservation Dr Nikki Tagg reports on the phenomenon of ‘global weirding’, and considers the impact this is already having on our work for wild animals, as well as difficulties to come.

Climate chaos

These times are unpredictable. Thankfully, your support is not, and it allows us to continue to work with frontline communities in the face of challenges that are yet to come.

Climate change is a well-known phenomenon. But ‘climate flipping and whiplash’ –rapid and extreme changes in weather patterns – are taking hold in many of the world’s biggest cities. This includes countries where Born Free carries out community engagement and field conservation activities, such as Kenya and Cameroon.

Human-caused global warming exacerbates droughts, wildfires, floods and heatwaves. As the climate crisis intensifies, it is important to prepare for possible changes and ensure we are doing all we can for the communities and wildlife at the frontline of climate chaos.

It’s no longer in question that the effects of climate change are well and truly underway. However, there’s still so much that cannot be predicted. One such emerging phenomenon is what has been termed ‘global weirding’. This is when climate change causes weather-related extremes to become more intense.

A recent report, commissioned by WaterAid and carried out by researchers of the University of Bristol and Cardiff University, examined changes in wet and dry extremes over the past 42 years in 112 major cities. These cities include the world’s top 100 most populated, spanning the globe and representing all income categories.

Researchers compared two 21-year periods between 1982 and 2023. Cities that experienced at least 12 months more of one type of extreme climate (wet or dry) and at least 12 months less of the other type of extreme climate in the second 21-year period were classed as having a ‘climate flip’. The cities that had at least five months more of both extreme wet and extreme dry in the second period were classed as having developed ‘climate whiplash’.

Climate ‘flip’

Of the 112 cities analysed by the researchers, 95% showed a distinct trend. Of these, 58 had a wetting trend, while 49 had a drying trend. Twenty-four were found, however, to be experiencing a dramatic climate hazard ‘flip’ – regions that used to be wet, for example, are now experiencing dry conditions, and vice versa.

Water is vital to health and environmental stability. Having too much or too little can be catastrophic. Already today, 90% of natural disasters are water-related, and low-income countries, in particular, are on the frontline.

Featuring in this list of climate-flipping cities is the bustling capital Yaoundé, located in one Born Free’s primary geographies, Cameroon. Yaoundé is showing an extreme drying trend over the last 42 years.

Prolonged droughts can lead to water shortages, disrupted food supplies, and electricity blackouts where hydropower is relied upon. Many cities have been developed based on a predictable climate pattern, yet it is likely they have been designed for a climate that no longer exists. Richer cities, where there is good infrastructure are not exempt from this, but in lower-income countries it heightens an already urgent need for infrastructure investments.

Climate ‘whiplash’

The study revealed another 17 global cities are experiencing climate hazard ‘whiplash’. This encompasses is an increase in both wet and dry extremes, meaning that the area suffers more frequent droughts and floods.

The biggest whiplashes were identified in Hangzhou, China, the Indonesian megacity of Jakarta, and Dallas in Texas. Also among the list of whiplash cities is Nairobi – the capital city of Born Free’s heartland, Kenya, and where Born Free operates in two different landscapes – Amboseli and Meru.

As well as suffering climatic extremes, the rapid shift between wet and dry further exacerbates the effects of each event. For example, after a period of extreme dryness, intense rain can overwhelm drainage and sanitation systems, as the parched ground cannot absorb the excess water. This can lead to flash floods that displace communities, damage roads and homes, and pollute remaining water sources which can risk spreading waterborne diseases such as cholera and dysentery.

Climate whiplash can make it very difficult for people to prepare and recover, or to access the services they need, thus hindering people’s ability to gain an education or earn a living, damaging economies and endangering lives.

Born Free’s target landscapes

Across Born Free’s target landscapes, climate change is already having a massive impact on communities and wildlife.

In Kenya, East Africa, Born Free works to protect lions, elephants and giraffes and empower communities in Meru to the north of Nairobi and Amboseli to the south. These regions have suffered devastating droughts over the last few decades, resulting in extreme food and water insecurity for the communities and wildlife living in these landscapes. Now, extreme floods are also becoming more frequent in this climate whiplash region.

Born Free delivers a gorilla conservation programme in Cameroon and communities living in the Dja landscape are being forced to wait longer and longer for rains to start before planting crops, as the climate flips towards dryer extremes.

Born Free also works in Central India on tiger conservation. South and Southeast Asia has been identified as a regional hotspot with a strong wetting trend. It is quite likely that Satpuda Landscape in Central India will experience some knock-on effects of this wetting Indian climate.

In our target landscapes, we will look into the feasibility of implementing activities that can assist communities in adapting to these extreme changes in climatic patterns over the coming years with compassion and an understanding of the challenges they are facing.

• Agriculture-related initiatives – Climate-smart agriculture can comprise integrated soil fertility management, agroforestry, improved water use and management, the use of climate-resistant seed varieties, increasing productivity from kitchen gardens and establishing community seed banks.
• Livelihood strategies – Livelihood interventions can include building on existing adaptations by supporting collective action and associated diversified livelihoods for pastoralists (who keep livestock) and agro-pastoralists (who grow crops and keep livestock) via support for community groups, enabling links to county government to access expertise, and by considering a focus on water conservation and on improving energy efficiency and the use of renewable energy.
• Knowledge access interventions – Such activities can include helping establish a multi-stakeholder climate change platform, including government, organisations and communities, to develop an integrated plan for adaptation, the creation of an online repository for risk information and climate change forecasting, advocacy and working with external institutions.
• Gender specific considerations – These can include advocacy and awareness raising activities to narrow the gap, the development of livelihoods and interventions designed for women and to meet women’s needs, and initiatives to encourage and enable boys and girls to attend school.

Climate chaos is being unleashed across the world as a result of human-caused global warming. Born Free is invested in a number of landscapes in countries affected by climate weirding, and we know there are challenges ahead. 
 
These times are unpredictable. Thankfully, your support is not, and it allows us to continue to work with frontline communities in the face of challenges that are yet to come.